To GBU-57 or not GBU-57, that is the question? It actually is not the question
National Security leaders easily fall prey to "JDAMS/Tomahawk Giddiness", don't fall for it
With modern Global Positioning System and Inertial Navigation Systems such as the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) or Tomahawk cruise missile, it truly is a one bomb, one target era.
It wasn’t until the late 2000s (i.e. 2000 - 2009) when the number of JDAMs type weapons surpassed dumb, iron bombs.
No longer did National Security Council (NSC) Decisions hinge upon how many 100s of F-105s, F-4s, A-6s, and F-111s to launch in large waves to hit targets in North Vietnam, usually with the targets rarely being hit and multiple friendly aircraft and aircrews being shot down and captured, now it really is, one bomb, one target.
Therefore the debates in NSC and Cabinet meetings become mindless, one or zero debates, do we hit the target or not. JDAMs/Tomahawk giddiness sets in, because there is about a 99.9% chance the target will be hit.
Putting a JDAM or Tomahawk on target is so rewarding, visual, and satisfying. One problem with that. It is not the End State. Few ask, what is next?
You always have to ask what is next - over and over again.
Here are some of the possible scenarios:
The U.S. drops the GBU-57 and destroys Fordow and Natanz deep underground nuclear sites: What’s next?
The U.S. drops the GBU-57s, destroys the sites, and the fragments of the Iranian regime refuse to surrender: What’s next?
The U.S. drops the GBU-57s, and the sites are not destroyed: What’s next?
The U.S. B-2 delivering the GBU-57s is shot down and the aircrew captured: What’s next?
And so on.
Israel is doing magnificently so far. They are close to eliminating the entire regime and/or having the populace rise up and finish the job.
What’s next in that scenario? Having lived through two Gulf Wars and seeing Iran exploit the vacuum after Saddam was removed, I am concerned a bit - but the Chinese proxy causing the problems will be gone. Let the Iranian people figure out what’s next.
Yes, the DNI has recently briefed that Iran has no nuclear program. I have immense respect for Tulsi and her team - but we have an immense problem inside the U.S. Government - a massive Iranian Intelligence penetration led by Rob Malley and dozens or more of his ilk. We have not purged the DNI or the U.S. Government of the Iranians nor their Deep State helpers, so I do question our ability to carry out proper Intelligence related to Iran or anything.
If the Israelis really really really need the GBU-57, here’s how we can do it and stay out: Roosevelt brought massive amounts of war material to the Canadian border, put the cargo with a few inches across the border into Canada, and it was up to the British to take it from there.
If the Israelis really want the GBU-57, fly 4 or 6 to Israel and at that point, it’s up to them to figure out how to deliver it. I have immense respect from the Israelis, they will innovate and figure it out. We can continue negotiations with who ever is in charge of the Iranian regime for the next few minutes until the next person.
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Why is Rob Malley and his cohort still in place???? I like the way your mind works, Colonel John, If I could I'd put some stars (at least 2) on your shoulders and have you replace some of the deadwood. That's the kind of thinking we need. Let's see, 30,000# bomb + Israeli C-130 dispatched to Iran. With air superiority the need for stealth and speed are minimal (hopefully, but could still be an outlier with manpad -- how high does the C-130 fly?) so in that sense it is doable. Fighter escort. Hmmmmm. Yes, yes. My instincts say don't use a tactical nuke, which is being discussed. Blessings.
Interesting point.
So far we have Israel and Iran fighting against each other.
No other country has joined the “crisis.”
As soon as one country joins one side, an unpredictable number of other countries might join the other side.
No country wants to be the “first” country…. China would like to join Iran, but it does not want to be the first country that does that. CCP would prefer to have US be the scapegoat that joined “first”…. For the optics.
Even worse, what if Iran has sleeper cells in US? And what is, if China offers Iran to use their 200,000-300,000 Chinese military age men that are in the US to do the work as “Iranian sleeper cell”? The Chinese would do sabotage, but it would look like as if they were Iranian sleeper cells. What a mess. But Iran and CCP would be happy.
Is Iran a trap for Trump?
But having US military equipment just 1 hour away from Iran creates this ambiguous situation: will US strike or not?
Imagine having your house 24/7 watched by a K-9 dog for 1/2 year…
Will they hit or not? — Will they hit or not? 1hr away power projection creates nerve wracking uncertainty and ambiguity… Let’s give it a new term: “unexpected warfare”….the unpredictable counter response to China’s “unrestricted warfare”… that’s why China is afraid of Trump: he is no cookie cutter president, hard to predict.